What's this about?
Nvidia projected $673 billion in sales as AI demand broadens. The HN thread barely engages with the number and instead attacks the reporting of it.
Why is a sales projection controversial?
Because a projection is a claim about the future made by the party that benefits from you believing it. Nvidia's projections have been right for several years running, which is exactly why they now get reprinted without scrutiny — and why a projection this large deserves the question of what demand it assumes, from whom, funded by what.
What's the community saying?
HN 103 points, 99 comments
- The top comment is about the press, not the company: "the way publications just regurgitate this stuff with no critical thought boggles my mind."
- The immediate reply is the market's answer to every sceptic: "short it. NVDA is the most liquid market in history."
- Which produces the standard chain — "markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" — and a strongly-worded warning against retail investors shorting anything.
- The thread's most sensible conclusion, arrived at by several people separately: diversified long positions with a long horizon, and stop trying to time this.